Tuesday, August 29, 2006

"Duck and Cover" or "How I Learned to Love the Bomb Shelter"

Iran will get its nukes unless Israel decides to intervene, the US public will not get behind another war given that we don’t have the backbone to see the current war in Iraq to a successful conclusion. Given that Olmert didn't have the backbone to finish off Hezbollah I don't see Israel saving the day either. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gains real power as he seems to be doing then when he becomes Supreme Ruler we may see those nukes used. I don’t think American society can withstand the loss of several major cities including Washington D.C. and NYC. I will become a survivalist, country boy will survive, but I fear for the rest of the world. If the Twelfth Imam really comes maybe we will be alright, otherwise the rest of the world will have it far worse than the U.S.

I’d like to see a blockade of Iran regardless of what that would mean to oil prices but that doesn’t seem likely. I am certain any stronger action is more unlikely. UN sanctions are a joke, Saddam showed us that, and either China or Russia will veto any action on Iran anyway. Time has run out, you may not have noticed but Iran is blocking IAEA inspections of its uranium enrichment facility. Mario Loyola at NRO calls this the point of no return in the Iranian nuclear crises. It’s now time to consider the ramifications of an Iranian nuclear power.

In Our Fallout-Shelter Future Stanley Kurtz makes a few sobering observations.
Once Iran gets the bomb, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are likely to develop their own nuclear weapons, for self-protection, and so as not to allow Iran to take de facto cultural-political control of the Muslim world. (I think you’ve got to at least add Egypt to this list.) With three, four, or more nuclear states in the Muslim Middle East, what becomes of deterrence?
With several Muslim countries in possession of the bomb, it would be extremely difficult to trace the state source of a nuclear terror strike. In fact, this very difficulty would encourage states (or ill-controlled elements within nuclear states — like Pakistan’s intelligence services or Iran’s Revolutionary Guards) to pass nukes to terrorists. The tougher it is to trace the source of a weapon, the easier it is to give the weapon away. In short, nuclear proliferation to multiple Muslim states greatly increases the chances of a nuclear terror strike.
Deep mutual suspicion between an expansionist, apocalyptic, Shiite Iran, secular Turkey, and the Sunni Saudis and Egyptians (not to mention Israel) is likely to fuel a dangerous multi-pronged nuclear arms race. Larger arsenals mean more chance of a weapon being slipped to terrorists. The collapse of the world’s non-proliferation regime also raises the chances that nuclearization will spread to Asian powers like Taiwan and Japan.
“Duck and cover” is back! In a post-proliferation world, we are going to be raising another generation of children (probably several generations of children) marked by nerve-wracking “retention drills.” And get ready...the fallout shelter is coming back, too. Given the Soviets’ overwhelmingly large nuclear arsenal — capable of turning the entire United States to dust in the event of a major nuclear exchange — fallout shelters came to seem like a joke. But when dealing with a possible strike from a single weapon, or at most a mere handful of weapons, the logic of the fallout shelter is compelling. We’re going to need to be able to evacuate our cities in the event of a direct attack, or to avoid radiation plumes from cities that have already been struck.
We are in big trouble even if Iran never uses its nukes; just having them will insure their immunity from retaliatory military action for any transgressions they may initiate. What do we do if they move into southern Iraq? Or worse go through Iraq, into Kuwait, and unlike Saddam, down into Saudi Arabia? Imagine the Mullahs controlling that much oil. Tehran has shown itself to be the world’s premier sponsor of terrorism, would we go after a nuclear armed Iran like we did little Afghanistan if a Tehran sponsored terrorist group brings on another 9/11? Could we count on our European allies, (as if we could now), if the Mullahs have the capability to lob nukes into Europe? Iran will be able to ride roughshod over the entire middle east with impunity, at least till its neighbors gets their nukes. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will be dead and the world will become a much scarier place than it already is and its going to happen.

Update:

Ahmadinejad cannot become Supreme Ruler, he lacks the religious credentials. At best he will remain a toady puppet for the Mullahs who are hopefully no where near as insane.

1 comment:

FLORA said...

Ya kno, this i s why I first started breeding horses that could go 100miles in one day. You know where they come from? Central Asia. I now speak rudimentary Turkmen, and have surprised several people from the region by at least understanding it (my pronunciation is hilarious, I have been told.)

But REALLY, what has it come to when a California girl from a nice family thinks "I may have to head for the mountains or farther on horseback, someday. My cowponies wont make it, so I better breed something else."

I mean its funny when I contemplate trying out for the So. Cal Buzkashi Team, with the regionally appropriate horses...Much to the surprise of the (generally regionally appropriate men who are usually inhterested) But its sad that it ever crossed my mind that I would need them, not for their beauty, the fact they can win at the horse show, or for their loyal intelligence, but simply for a relay of fast, tough mounts willing to take me the H@!! outta Dodge, over high desert terrain, without foundering.

Will I ever have to use them to escape the region in Cali where my farm lies now? I hope not. But I have thought thru my escape, down to the plan to shoot my old cutting horse and my old warmblood jumper, because they wont be able to keep up, and I want them to be humanely dead before I leave. This saddens me to the core. IN Post cold war America, and I have to think these thoughts, from "where will I get my water?" to "Whatever shall I do with my Housecats?"

My heart breaks for my country, and the friends I will have to leave behind because they do not own Central Asian Long distance running horses. I can take my husband and perhaps two other friends, because one of the friends has mules, and we can use them to pack enough supplies for three people, for one week.

That leaves Three horses per rider, and a packmule for each.

DAmn.