Thursday, May 17, 2012

Obama, gay marriage, and black voter turnout.

The conventional wisdom is that Obama can't loose the Black vote short of being exposed as a Klan member.  However one must ask how important were Black churches in mobilizing Black voters to get out and vote for Barry?  Many of Obama's most fervent leftest supporters are less than enthusiastic about Obama this go round.  The anti-war crowd are not happy about the war for oil in Libya.  The anti-torture crowd are not happy that Club Gitmo remains open and that renditions to countries that will torture, and we are talking about real torture, not what my son and I went through, continue.  The screw the rich crowd, occupy wall street crowd, and the anti-private equity firm crowd , are not happy that Obama hosted a $35,800-a-head fundraiser at the home of the president of the nation’s largest private equity firm and has taken $15.6 million from banks and other financial firms, more than twice what Romney has raised.

While those crowds may be less inclined to race to the ballot box to pull the lever for Obama Blacks have stayed solidly in Obama's corner.  However his decision to come out in support of gay marriage has alienated Blacks in a way that 16.7% Black unemployment never could.  Blacks will still vote overwhelmingly for Obama, he got 95% in 2008 compared to Kerry's 88% in 2004, but how many will turn out?  How important were Black preachers in getting out the Black vote in the last election?  Black voter turnout increased 4.9% in 2008.  Early Sunday voting was a part of that as preachers led their congregations to the polls after services.  Churches provided buses, helped with voter I.D., and were at the forefront in registering Black voters.  According to a study by  Philpot, Shaw, and McGowen efforts to get voters to the polls was a far greater factor than Obama's race in the increase in Black turnout.

According to Black Church News Obama will need a higher Black turnout this year in order to win five key states, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.  Most Black voters shrug off Obama's new stance on gay marriage thinking that he doesn't really believe what he's saying or taking the "we can agree to disagree" attitude on this issue.  Still he will loose some of that 95%.  Dr. Boyce Watkins asks: "Will churchgoing Black women choose their pastor or president?"  Some no doubt will choose Obama but not all.  The effect of Obama's owning up to his feeling regarding gay marriage on Black pastors is even greater however and their enthusiasm or lack thereof towards reelecting Obama will reverberate across the landscape.  

This is Obama's Waterloo.  He has jumped the shark.  I will predict today that barring a war with Iran Obama will loose big in November.

Update:  He won't be getting as many Jewish votes this year either:
The End of the Jewish Left

Update 2:  Larry Elder wonders: 

Will Gay Marriage Force Black Churches to Reconsider Democratic Party?

Update 3:  He won't get 54% of Catholic voters again either.

Catholic voters key to presidential win.


Anonymous said...

Since Republicans are making it so hard for Blacks to vote, Holder has been talking about this, I think you will see an even larger turnout this year among Blacks and other disenfranchised minorities.

Rancher said...

I assume you're talking about voter ID. Why is it so hard for Blacks to get an ID as opposed to everyone else? That sounds racists in and of itself, like they are too stupid or something. Black churches, Democratic organizations, and community organizations are all making it very easy. Face it, Democrats oppose voter ID because they want as much voter fraud as possible, remember ACORN?