Tuesday, October 13, 2009

War on Iran

Dr. Michael Ledeen has been the foremost advocate for the people of Iran. His posts are headlined by the plea “Faster Please!” in a cry for more support of those who would overthrow the tyrannical regime in Iran. That is a plea that was largely ignored by G.W. Bush and even more ignored, even apparently disdained, by B.H. Obama. In an effort to promote his extended hand of diplomacy towards Iran Obama mutely sat by while the Iranian people took to the streets to protect what little voice they have, had, in the governance of Iran. For that he got the peace prize?

Things may be coming to a boil however, Dr. Ledeen has reported that a source he respects has said Khamenei is in a coma. Commenter Uzi asks a brilliant question:

If the Supreme Leader ( if I’m not mistaken that translates into German as der uberfuhrer) is really in a coma, what will happen if his situation doesn’t change, if he doesn’t recover and doesn’t die? Arik Sharon has been in a state of low conciousness for nearly four years. A client of mine who was hit by a car has been in a coma since April, 2006.
But the Supreme Leader is supposed to be Allah’s representative on earth. How will they deal with an unconcious leader if the situation persists?

Dr. Ledeen is the first to express cation that this an unconfirmed report. We have seen the death of Castro, Bin Laden, and Khamenei before and have been bitterly disappointed. The death of Khamenei, or even his being immobilized politically as well as physically, will bring to a boil the simmering clash between the military and the clergy in Iran. Khamenei’s support for Ahmadinejad’s blatantly fraudulent election came as a surprise and did not sit well with many of Iran’s clerics. Ayatollah Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic Republic of Iran, had set up a theocracy that had within it some form of checks and balances based on the elections of parliament and the presidency, (although candidates are chosen by the Guardian Council). Khamenei was always suspicious of elections and reform and pretty much destroyed the illusion of both in the last election. Standing against him and Ahmadinejad was the power broker Rafsanjani, top cleric Montazeri, Mousavi (second place in the election), Karroubi (third place), Khatami (the reformer), and the people of Iran. Fence sitters like speaker of parliament Larijani will most likely support whoever comes out on top.

Rafsanjani heads the Assembly of Experts, those clerics who will choose the next Supreme Leader; a position Ahmadinejad has no hope of filling. Supreme Leader is a position that can be held only by extremely respected Islamic clerics, Khamenei barely had the religious creds to hold the job. When the Assembly of Experts elects a new Supreme Leader, and that title is no joke, Ahmadinejad will find that his authority will be subjected to a veto by the new Supreme Leader. That will set up a power play between Ahmadinejad and the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, (who are supposed to take their orders from the Supreme Leader but are very supportive of Ahmadinejad), against the Mullahs. Rafsanjani will have support from most of the business community but the IRGC has taken bigger and bigger pieces of the economy into their hands. This could get really ugly and could present Obama with excellent opportunities to exploit the situation to America’s advantage but he won’t. To take a side in the interests of his country would be very abrasive against his sensibilities as a member of the post America world community organizer that Obama visions himself to be. Obama doesn’t believe in meddling with other countries, except of course Israel.


Jungle Mom said...

I was thrilled and shocked to see you back!

Rancher said...

Well thanks!