The Iran War

Amir Taheri at Gulf News explains from a military point of view why Iran coaxed Syria into assassinating Gamayel or else just ordered their agents or Hezbollah to carry it out. Basically in the Iran American war both sides see Lebanon as crucial. The Americans need a Democracy that will do what is in Lebanon’s best interest, and having a state within a state that puts it’s Iranian master’s interest ahead of Lebanon’s is obviously not in Lebanon’s best interests. The Iranians need control of Lebanon in order to keep its proxy army on Israel’s border so that at any time they can unleash a firestorm for whatever reason they deem necessary. However both Iran and Syria do not count on the following:

Rather than watch with folded arms as Iran and Syria annex Lebanon, Israel would feel obliged to take action. It is clear that Syria would be the immediate target of such action.

Mr. Taheri thinks that the next war will be an Israeli Syrian one. While I agree my thinking was that for political reasoning and due to the fact that Israel was perceived to have lost the Hezbollah Israeli War Assad would be dumb enough to try and take back the Golan Heights.

Update: Amir Taheri on the stupidity of talking to the Iranian regime.